Washington Economy Watch provides local business and government leaders with a consistent analysis of Greater Washington’s regional economy to ensure they are equipped with the information needed to make informed decisions regarding the future development of the region’s economy.
Following the onset of a recession in July of 1990, a region-specific early warning analytical framework was developed to ensure public and private sectors leaders could better anticipate changes in the direction of the local economy. The Washington Economic Index has been calculated each month since February 1991 and reflects an underlying data base that dates back to 1978.
The Washington Economic Index is the only metropolitan–level Index (consisting of Leading and Coincident Indices).
The Washington Leading Index forecasts the performance of the metropolitan area economy six to eight months in advance based on a combination of regional indicators, including unemployment, consumer expectations, retail spending, and residential building permits.
The Washington Coincident Index represents the current state of the metropolitan area economy based on a combination of regional indicators, including wage and salary employment, consumer confidence, retail sales, and domestic passenger volume.
Each month, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute will report on the status of these key indicators to ensure regional leaders have the most up-to-date information in regards to the current and near-term performance of the Washington region’s economy.
Understanding Business Cycles and The Washington Economic Index ›
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Washington Economy Watch
Vol. VIII, No. 4 – April 2024
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Federal Employment Stagnation May Force Diversification
The Coincident Index recorded another modest increase, while the Leading Index increased sharply from January, indicating that the region’s economy is set to improve later this year.
- The Coincident Index increased 1.4% from February 2022 to February 2023.
- The Leading Index increased 4.3% from February 2022 to February 2023.
The Coincident Index has remained relatively stable over the past four readings, indicating that the Washington Region’s economy has stabilized. The Leading Index, in contrast, improved markedly from January to February, accelerating from a 0.1% month-over-year-increase in January to 4.3% in February, indicating that the region is set to improve later this year. Despite this, major risks for the region remain. Compared to peer metros, the Washington region continues to underperform in private sector employment. Perhaps most problematically, federal employment has stagnated in the Washington region even as it grows nationally (see near-term outlook). Federal employment stagnation implies that unless the Washington region begins to diversify economically, it will not only languish but become increasingly exposed to economic shocks it has historically been protected from.
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Washington Index (monthly, 1990 to present)
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. VIII, No. 4 – April 2024
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VIII, No. 3 – March 2024
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VIII, No. 2 – February 2024
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VIII, No. 1 – January 2024
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 11 – November 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 10 – October 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 9 – September 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 8 – August 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 7 – July 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 6 – June 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 5 – May 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 4 – April 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 3 – March 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 2 – February 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VII, No. 1 – January 2023
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VI, No. 2 – December 2022
Washington Economy Watch Vol. VI, No. 1 – November 2022
Washington Economy Watch Vol. V, No. 7 – October 2021
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. V, No. 5 – August 2021
Washington Economy Watch Vol. V, No. 4 – 2Q 2021
Washington Economy Watch Vol. V, No. 3 – March 2021
Washington Economy Watch Vol. V, No. 2 – February 2021
Washington Economy Watch Vol. V, No. 1 – January 2021
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 10 – Nov/Dec 2020
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 9 – Sep/Oct 2020
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 1 – January 2020
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 11 – November 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. IV, No. 1 – January 2020
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 11 – November 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 10 – October 2019
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. III, No. 1 – January 2019
Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 11 – November 2018
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 9 – September 2018
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 6 – June 2018
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 4 – April 2018
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. II, No. 1 – January 2018
Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 11 – November 2017
Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 10 – October 2017
Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 9 – September 2017
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 4 – April 2017
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Washington Economy Watch Vol. I, No. 1 – January 2017